Betting on the Champions League Knockout Phase: Follow These Strategies & Tips
First, we want to address the crucial question when betting on the Champions League knockout phase. This is whether you’re betting on a specific match (i.e., the first leg OR the second leg), or whether you’re betting on a so-called “head-to-head” bet, which some bookmakers also refer to as “Who will advance?” or “Who will reach the next round?”
This explicitly involves predicting who will come out on top after both the first and second legs have been completed – regardless of how this progress came about. For more insights into where to place such bets, check out non-GamStop bookmaker reviews via thegamepoint.io. Whether it’s a clear win with two teams, or whether it’s a very close result with a penalty shootout in the event of two equal scores.
Such head-to-head bets are seriously underrated. While the classic two-way system (there can logically only be two picks, Team A and Team B) may not offer the highest odds – especially if you decide against betting on the underdog at non GamStop bookmakers.
Nevertheless, there is tremendous value here if you’re a fan of combination bets at non GamStop bookmakers. While a team can certainly overwhelm an opponent in one match it’s much harder for the underdog to catch the favorite off guard in two games. This means that in matches with two legs, the favored team is very likely to prevail – especially when we’re talking about clear favorites.
After all, when has a team like Basel ever knocked FC Bayern Munich out of the Champions League, or FC Schalke Manchester City? While isolated wins are possible, separate bets on the underdog for the first or second leg are certainly possible. In a head-to-head scenario, however, this is almost impossible.
So, if you back the clear favorites—which is especially evident in the round of 16 with a few exceptions—this is a great accumulator betting strategy that can earn you some serious money with bookmakers who offer bonuses for accumulator bets, especially since these bets rarely fall through.
Please note, however, that matchups like Manchester United vs. Paris Saint-Germain, Liverpool vs. Bayern Munich, or Atlético Madrid vs. Juventus (all three matches from the round of 16 of the 2018/19 season) are by no means suitable for this strategy. The clear favorite roles have to be clearly defined!
Finally, let’s look at various scenarios to help your predictions for individual matches (a bet on the first leg OR the second leg) gain more certainty in the future.
Firstly, it’s worth noting that surprising results can sometimes occur, especially in the first leg, when the underdog has home advantage against the favorite (see also the Champions League round of 16). It’s not for nothing that a 1-1 draw is the most common result in football, although the odds distribution, with a clear favorite in this first leg, could look something like this: 8.00 – 4.75 – 1.36
But why should the away team accept defeat due to an unfortunate counterattack and then celebrate unconditional attacking football when the first leg was held 1-1 by the supposed underdog? Even a goalless draw in the second leg wouldn’t be enough for the underdog.
The underdog will therefore have to play offensively against the overwhelming favorite after a 1-1 first leg draw, which will play into the favorite’s hands even more. It is therefore rarely wise to play Tip 2 in the first leg, as there is practically never a value bet at non GamStop bookmakers when the favorite plays away first.
Or to put it another way: A positive expected value appears more often than average in Champions League knockout matches for bets such as Tip 1 and Tip X in the classic 3-way system, or with the double chance and the ” draw = no bet ” market.
If you are not yet confident in these markets, please also read the corresponding guide articles to learn about the specific advantages and disadvantages. In any case, there is a lot to be gained in the first leg of the Champions League with these bets.
Last but not least, the opposite scenario is also possible. If the favorite wins the away game with a result that virtually seals progression (e.g., a 4-0 away win, which means the underdog now needs a landslide victory in the return leg, especially at the stadium of their top-flight opponent), the probability of this happening is probably as slim as the chance of winning the lottery with the bonus number.
In any case, one would have to dig long and deep into the football history books to find such examples. Moreover, none of them are truly relevant to the present.
In short: Team B, which already made things clear in the away leg, will most likely field a B team in the return leg, while Team A, depending on the current state of the domestic league, will certainly be keen to give their opponents another go in the return leg.
And the list of examples is incredibly long. In the 2017/18 season, Liverpool beat Porto 5-0 in the first leg away from home. The return leg at Anfield ended in a goalless draw. Manchester City, meanwhile, beat FC Basel 4-0. The Swiss surprisingly won the return leg at the Etihad Stadium 2-1.
Conclusion
In this article, we’ve taken a look at exactly how you can make good money betting on the Champions League knockout phase, and what’s important to ensure you get the best possible value on your betting slip.
It’s important that you understand and internalize the special features of these knockout rounds, where the home and away legs create a match situation that can’t simply be transferred to other match situations.
Please note that much of what we have given you here can generally be applied to the knockout matches in the UEFA Europa League. However, there is the big but: this is only the second most important competition for European club teams.
And as such, it is contested by many teams. Teams from large countries such as Germany, Spain, England and Italy in particular do not always play their games with full enthusiasm, preferring to concentrate on their domestic tasks.
In summary: While what’s written here can generally be applied to the Europa League, it’s not unconditional. We therefore hope that you’ll find the right path and gain new, valuable, and important insights for your future Champions League bets as the exciting knockout rounds approach.
